Australia flash PMI: growth slows to Q3 low as factories contract and firms cut jobs

The survey hands the RBA a mixed signal days before its 29 September decision: softer demand and job cuts argue for caution, while faster growth in output prices keeps the inflation case for a hike alive. With markets already heavily priced for a move, the data may do more to shape expectations for November than for next week. Energy remains the key transmission channel, with Middle East-driven fuel costs cited as the main source of input price pressure, so oil prices stay central to Australia's inflation outlook. For the Australian dollar, weaker growth momentum is a modest headwind, although rate differentials are likely to dominate. --- Earlier: All four major Australian banks now forecast RBA hike to 4.60% on September 29 RBA governor Bullock flags inflation risks as higher neutral rates come into focus --- Australia's private sector kept growing in September, but only just, with factories contracting and firms cutting staff while still raising prices faster. Summary: The flash composite output index fell to 50.8 in September from 52.7, a fourth month of expansion but the weakest of the third quarter Services activity slowed to 51.4 from 53.2, while the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3 from 52.0, its first contraction reading since March, with factory output falling at the fastest pace in 21 months New business grew at its slowest pace in three months, dragged by a renewed drop in manufacturing orders, and export orders fell for the fifth time in six months Private sector employment fell for the first time in four months, with the modest decline still the steepest since October 2020 Input cost inflation hit a three-month high, driven mainly by Middle East-related energy and fuel costs, and output prices rose at a strong and faster pace than in August Business confidence fell to a three-month low and further below its long-run average Australia's private sector growth slowed to its weakest pace of the third quarter in September, preliminary survey data from S&P