Australia jobs preview: employment seen rebounding in August, jobless rate at 4.5%

The data land days before the Reserve Bank of Australia's 29 September meeting, where a rate increase is widely expected, so a result near or above forecasts would do little to shift near-term pricing but could firm expectations for further tightening in November. A second straight fall in employment, or a jump in unemployment, would challenge the case for a follow-up hike and could weigh on the Australian dollar and short-dated bond yields. With the forecast range spanning 10,000 to 47,000, the scope for surprise is wide in both directions. Traders are also likely to weigh the release against the September flash PMI, which pointed to the steepest fall in private sector employment since 2020. --- Earlier: Australia flash PMI: growth slows to Q3 low as factories contract and firms cut jobs RBA governor Bullock flags inflation risks as higher neutral rates come into focus --- Australia's labour market is expected to shrug off July's stumble, but a slowing trend and a hawkish RBA make Thursday's numbers more than a routine check-up. Summary: Australia's August labour force data are due at 11.30am Sydney time on Thursday 24 September (0130 GMT Thursday, 2130 US Eastern time Wednesday) The market expects employment to rise by about 20,000, with forecasts ranging from 10,000 to 47,000; Westpac forecasts a stronger 30,000 gain Employment fell by about 16,000 in July, below all expectations, after solid gains of about 38,000 in May and 80,000 in June The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.5%, with forecasts between 4.4% and 4.5% July's rate edged up only fractionally, from 4.43% to 4.46%, but enough to round up from 4.4% to 4.5% Westpac expects employment growth to slow through the second half of the year as headwinds build Markets expect employment to have risen by about 20,000 in August, although forecasts range widely, from 10,000 to 47,000. Westpac is more optimistic than the consensus, pencilling in a gain of 30,000. Forecasts for the unemployment rate sit betw