Australia jobs preview: CBA sees 15,000 gain, unemployment steady at 4.5%

With CBA below consensus and Westpac above it, the major banks bracket the market's 20,000 forecast, so a result anywhere in that band is unlikely to move rate expectations much ahead of next week's widely expected RBA hike. The bigger swing factor is the unemployment rate: CBA's view that it needs to drift higher to curb inflation means a surprise dip would strengthen the case for further tightening beyond September, supporting the Australian dollar and short-end yields. A jump toward 4.6% or above would do the opposite, reinforcing the idea that the RBA is nearing the end of its cycle. The pick-up in some job advertisement measures that CBA flags is a reminder that the softening is not one-way. --- Earlier: RBA governor Bullock flags inflation risks as higher neutral rates come into focus All four major Australian banks now forecast RBA hike to 4.60% on September 29 --- CBA expects Australia's jobs market to keep easing gently rather than cracking, with unemployment edging up over time, which is exactly what the RBA needs to see. Summary: Australia's August labour force data are due at 11.30am Sydney time on Thursday 24 September (0130 GMT Thursday, 2130 US Eastern time Wednesday) CBA forecasts employment rising by 15,000, below the market consensus of about 20,000 and Westpac's 30,000 CBA expects the participation rate to hold at 66.9% (66.85% unrounded), leaving unemployment steady at 4.5% The bank's own wage and labour data suggest employment growth is broadly steady but weaker than recent official figures imply, and some hiring intention surveys have eased CBA expects unemployment to grind higher over time, which it sees as necessary to bring inflation down Some job advertisement measures have picked up recently, a signal the bank says is worth watching CBA forecasts employment rising by 15,000 in August, below the market consensus of about 20,000 and well short of Westpac's forecast of 30,000. The gain would follow a surprise fall of about 16,000 in July. Wit