Trump and Xi buy two more months of trade truce, leaving tariffs and rare earths in limbo

A two-month extension avoids a November tariff cliff, but it gives markets no lasting relief, and the January 10 deadline now becomes the next risk event for trade-sensitive assets. The Australian dollar, as a liquid proxy for China's growth, is likely to take its lead from progress at the Shenzhen and Miami summits more than from this week's ceremony. Farm purchases lagging and rare-earth deliveries falling short give Washington grounds to push harder, which keeps risk alive in soybeans and in supply chains that depend on critical minerals. Xi's push for tougher US language on Taiwan adds a geopolitical tail risk that tends to support demand for safe havens if rhetoric escalates. --- Plenty of flyovers and marching bands, not much substance: the trade truce survives for two months, the hard questions roll into January, and Xi's pressure on Taiwan shows how much rivalry still lies under the ceremony. Summary: The US-China trade truce, due to expire in November, was extended by only two months, to January 10 Tariffs, Chinese purchases, rare earths and tech restrictions remain unresolved China is meeting its soybean commitment but lagging on $17 billion of other farm purchases, and rare-earth deliveries are also falling short Xi urged prudence on Taiwan and wants the US to oppose independence, which would be a tougher line than current US policy Xi raised the Thucydides Trap but said the risk could be overcome, calling for regular military dialogue Summits in Shenzhen and Miami before year-end offer further chances for a lasting deal US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the truce, which had been due to expire in November, now runs to January 10, giving both sides more time to work on the economic relationship. The short extension falls well short of a durable deal. Bessent said on Wednesday that Beijing was meeting its commitment to buy 25 million tons of soybeans but was behind on a pledge to buy $17 billion of other farm goods. US officials have also said rare-e