AUDUSD breaks below the 200 day MA for the first time since November 2025, but cannot sustain downside momentum

<p>The AUDUSD has fallen sharply this week as buying of the US dollar took center stage. Fed officials struck a tougher tone on policy, Treasury yields moved higher, and the market-implied probability of an October rate hike rose to around 66% at the time of this update. Higher US yields can make the dollar more attractive relative to other currencies, adding pressure to pairs such as AUDUSD.</p><p></p><p>The technical picture turned more bearish on Wednesday when the pair broke below its 100-day moving average with momentum. That put the 200-day moving average, currently near 0.70217, in the sellers’ sights.</p><p>The price reached that level early in the Asia-Pacific session yesterday and briefly broke below it. Buyers responded, pushing the pair back up, but the recovery stalled before the 0.70515 midpoint of the rise from the late-June low. The high reached 0.70447. By the end of the day, AUDUSD had turned lower again and closed below its 200-day moving average.</p><p>Today brought another test. The pair fell to 0.7005 in early Asia-Pacific trading, its lowest level since August 4. Broader US dollar selling, including a move lower in USDJPY, and improved risk sentiment then helped AUDUSD rebound above the 200-day moving average. The rally reached 0.7036, but the price has since rotated back toward that moving average.</p><p>That leaves traders with a decision at a familiar level.</p><p>The break below the 200-day moving average matters: it was the first in nearly 11 months. Many traders use that average as a guide to the longer-term trend. Still, AUDUSD has already fallen from 0.7237 to around 0.7000 in just 12 trading days. After a decline of that size, some sellers may take profits and some buyers may look for a bounce. A move back above the average tells us buyers are trying; it does not, by itself, tell us the decline is over.</p><p>What would give buyers more control?</p><p>Holding above the 200-day moving average would be a start. The next test is 0.70515, the 50% midpoint that stopped yesterday’s recovery short. A move above that level would bring the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages, both currently near 0.70688, into focus. Getting back above those averages would give buyers a stronger case that the recent selling pressure is easing.</p><p>What would keep sellers in control?</p><p>A move back below the 200-day moving average, followed by a break under the natural support at 0.7000, would shift attention to the 0.6962–0.6978 swing area. Below that, traders would look toward 0.6920.</p><p>For now, the 200-day moving average is the barometer. Buyers have recovered it, but they need to hold it and clear resistance above. Sellers had the pair below it at yesterday’s close; a renewed break below, especially through 0.7000, would put the downside targets back in play.</p> This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.