China PMIs preview: official manufacturing seen back above 50 before holiday

A move in the official manufacturing PMI back above 50 would be read as a modest positive for China-sensitive assets, including the Australian dollar, the yuan and industrial metals. For oil, the question is whether the data changes the view on Chinese fuel demand, and a soft non-manufacturing print would keep demand worries alive. With mainland participants away for a week from Thursday, any surprise could be amplified in offshore trade. A miss on the official readings alongside a softer RatingDog services print would likely leave traders cautious into the break. --- China's September PMIs land in a single session before the holiday, with official manufacturing forecast to edge back above 50 while private-sector services momentum is seen fading slightly. Summary: China publishes official NBS and private RatingDog PMIs today, September 30, because of a week-long holiday starting Thursday, October 1. The NBS releases are due at 01:30 GMT (21:30 US Eastern on Tuesday, September 29) and the RatingDog releases at 01:45 GMT (21:45 US Eastern). NBS manufacturing is forecast at 50.1 versus a prior of 49.8, which would return it above the 50 expansion line. NBS non-manufacturing is forecast at 49.3 versus 49.0, still under 50. RatingDog manufacturing is forecast at 51.6 versus 51.5, and services at 51.1 versus 51.4. Forecasts point to a modest improvement in the official manufacturing gauge, which is expected to rise to 50.1 from 49.8. That would put the index back above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI is forecast at 49.3, up from 49.0, which would leave it below 50 even if the direction of travel is positive. The RatingDog surveys are expected to show a steadier but slightly mixed picture. Manufacturing is forecast at 51.6 against a prior of 51.5, which would keep it comfortably in expansion territory. Services is seen at 51.1, down from 51.4, so a small softening is expected, although the reading would still sit above 5