US July core PCE 3.0% y/y vs 3.3% expected

Prior was 3.3% Headline y/y 3.4% vs 3.7% expected (3.7% prior) Headline m/m +0.3% vs +0.4% expected (+0.2% prior) Core PCE (excluding food & energy): Core m/m +0.2% vs +0.3% expected Prior +0.2% Consumer spending and income for August: Personal income +0.2% vs +0.4% expected. Prior month +0.4% Personal spending +0.9% vs +0.8% expected. Prior month +0.2% Real personal spending % vs +0.0% prior This is a big sigh of relief for the Federal Reserve and takes away the pressure to hike rates in October. The US dollar is falling across the baord and Treasury yields are 4-5 bps lower across the curve. We're seeing bids in stocks and gold as well. For background, the Personal Consumption Expenditures report, commonly called the PCE report, is part of the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s monthly Personal Income and Outlays release. It provides information on household income, consumer spending and saving, alongside the PCE price index, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed in the United States. Together, these figures show how much consumers are spending and how much of that change reflects higher prices rather than additional purchases. The release includes headline and core inflation measures. Headline PCE covers the full range of consumer goods and services, while core PCE excludes food and energy, whose prices can fluctuate sharply. Both are reported as monthly and annual percentage changes. The Federal Reserve defines its longer-term 2% inflation objective using headline PCE, while closely monitoring core PCE to help assess underlying price trends. PCE is frequently compared with the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both track consumer inflation, but their coverage and calculation methods differ. CPI focuses primarily on expenses paid directly by urban consumers. PCE has broader coverage, including spending on consumers’ behalf, such as healthcare paid for by employers or government programmes. Conseque