Australia manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 as new orders drop for first time since June

The drop from 52.0 to 49.6 points to softer factory momentum, with the fall in new orders the signal most likely to draw attention because it reverses two months of improvement. The mix is awkward for rate and growth debates: weaker demand and job losses argue for patience, but oil, raw material and freight costs are still elevated and supplier delays are lengthening as the Middle East war disrupts shipping. That keeps oil and transport costs in focus as a channel through which the conflict feeds into Australian producers, even though the rate of input inflation eased a little. This is one survey of one sector, so markets will want confirmation from services and broader activity data before changing their view of the economy. --- Earlier: AUD/USD risks bigger breakdown below 0.7000 as RBA rate hike fails to lift aussie --- Australian factories slipped into contraction as new orders fell for the first time since June, with job cuts, weaker output and Middle East supply disruption all adding to the pressure. Summary: The S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in September from 52.0 in August, a marginal contraction that was the sharpest in 21 months. New orders fell for the first time since June, and export orders also declined after rising in August. Output fell for a second straight month at the fastest pace since December 2024, and headcounts fell for the first time in five months. Supplier delivery times lengthened further as the Middle East war disrupted shipments, and input costs stayed elevated, although the rate of input inflation eased slightly. Selling prices rose at the slowest pace in seven months as firms faced tougher competition. Manufacturers remain positive on the 12-month outlook, but confidence slipped to a four-month low. Australia's manufacturing sector lost momentum at the end of the third quarter, with the S&P Global Australia Manufacturing PMI falling to 49.6 in September from 52.0 in August. A reading below 50 signals contraction,