US sees China invasion of Taiwan unlikely before 2028, but trade and market risks remain

For years, 2027 has loomed over the Taiwan story as the point by which China wants its military to be capable of taking the island by force. However, the latest US assessment suggests that doesn't necessarily mean an invasion is just around the corner. The latest report from Reuters today says US officials are increasingly seeing a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 as being unlikely. And that is despite China president, Xi Jinping, having instructed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to have the necessary capabilities in place by 2027 if required. Delays to military readiness amid China’s anti-corruption campaign are reportedly one factor, while Beijing is also watching Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election closely. Now, the 2027 date has always been more about military capability than a substantiated invasion timetable on China's part. While they have never publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order, they also have not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under their control. But even so, the latest assessment here does help to take a little heat out of the idea that next year could represent some kind of fixed geopolitical deadline. Having said, I wouldn't read this as meaning the Taiwan risk is suddenly something markets can forget about. The timing of this report is particularly interesting as it follows from the recent Trump-Xi summit in Washington. The US and China extended their trade truce for another 60 days, giving both sides more breathing room. However, many of the bigger disagreements - particularly around technology and geopolitics - remain very much in the background. And Taiwan is where those issues start to overlap rather quickly. The island remains deeply embedded in the global semiconductor and AI supply chain. TSMC alone is continuing to expand its manufacturing footprint in the US, highlighting just how strategically important chip production has become to Washington as well as Beijing. Taking that into consideration, the risk isn't just abou